Guernsey Weather Fox

Friday

Weather

After a dry and largely clear night, the morning will see increasingly cloudy skies and eventually the onset of showers. The winds and temperature very similar to those of New Year’s day, but the showers likely heavier. The good news however, is that they will be shortlived, clearing by midday or 1pm at the latest and then leaving us with nothing but sunshine. Max temp 8-9°C with a moderate force 4 NNW’ly wind. Min temp (overnight) just 2°C, with a ground frost in most parishes.

Surf and the Water

Zero surf but good swim conditions on the south coast. High tides before dawn and after dusk (8.6m). Low tide will be at 11:45am.

The Weekend

Weather

Lovely and sunny both days, but with a chance of showers during the night time (mainly Sunday night). The air will be inherently cold, so temperatures won’t climb higher than 6°C each day. This is due to the wind coming straight down from the north… moderate force 4 on Saturday and then light force 3 on Sunday. Therefore, shelter will be required to feel comfortable on Saturday (so head to the south-coast cliffpaths for that), but all areas should feel ok on Sunday. Night time temperatures will come very close to zero, so ground frost is inevitable both nights. Furthermore, with showers likely on Sunday night, we may well wake up to icy roads on Monday.

Surf and the Water

The surf will remain flat, and the swim conditions best along the south coast. Tides will be low around lunchtime. Highs will be all be in the dark, slightly before dawn and in the mid-evenings… ranging between 8.9m and 9.3m.

Monday and Tuesday

Weather

Sunshine and isolated showers on Monday (perhaps with sleet or hail). Much clouder on Tuesday, with showers more likely, but also more gentle and less wintry. Winds will be force 3-4 NE’ly on Monday, then backing W’ly on Tuesday morning, further backing force 5 S’ly by Tuesday evening. This means that Monday will be super-cold, perhaps not even exceeding 5°C, then Tuesday will bounce back with a max temp of about 7-8°C by day and then 8-9°C by night.

Surf and the Water Flat surf is most likely throughout, but there’s just a slim chance of 1-2 feet on Tuesday afternoon. That said the tide will be low, so there probably won’t be anywhere it can turn that into a rideable wave. Swim conditions will be best in the south on Monday, but all coasts should be ok at one time or another on Tuesday. High tides will be about 9.5m at breakfast time and around 9m mid-evening. Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.

Wednesday to Friday

Weather

Wednesday will then reverse the warming trend of Tuesday, as winds temporarily return to a N’ly diredction. There have then been some hints of sleet or snow on Wednesday night, as a weather-front brings moisture to that cold air, before eventually warming out on Thursday as the winds become W’ly, and then warming further with a strong SW’ly on Friday. All these changes of wind and temperature come from the swift passing of low-pressure systems, across the Channel. So the headline word for the back end of the week is ‘changeable’. As such, forecast confidence is very low for these three days, so don’t be too surprised if you see any big changes in the next forecast update.

Surf and the Water

The surf will likely pick up by a foot or so each day, such that we may have a semi-decent 3-4 foot swell on Friday. Winds are a little difficult to predict, due to the weather turning rather changeable at this range, but the tides are nice and simple… mid-morning highs (diminishing from 9.2m on Wednesday to 8.3m on Friday) and late afternoon lows.