Saturday
Weather
The sky will look much like Friday afternoon and evening, with high cloud significantly softening the sunshine but never blocking it out altogether. Winds will be a bit perky at times, moderate force 4 (mostly around 15mph), but it will be coming from the southeast so it will bring French heat to the Islands. Most places should peak at 21-22°C, but the west coast could get up to 23°C. If we see any showers at all, then they wouldn’t be until very late at night, making them more of a Sunday feature than a Saturday.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be super-clean but only 1-2 feet at best. Great conditions for swimming in the north and west, providing you go when the tide is relatively high, so that you benefit from the shelter of the sea walls etc. High water will be at 6:30am and 6:45pm (8.2m and 8.7m respectively). Low water will be at 12:45pm.
Sunday
Weather
It looks as though showers will be aligned into bands, one around breakfast time and one around lunchtime. We may slip through the cracks, but my current expectation is that most parishes will get a couple of very minor wettings, in an otherwise dry and increasingly sunny day. The wind will shift from a moderate force 4 S’ly in the morning to a WSW’ly in the afternoon. This will bring cooler air than on Saturday and it will shift the heat across to the eastern side of the Island. Therefore, we are probably looking at a max of 21-22°C in Town and the Bridge, whilst most other places peak at just 20°C.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf to start the day, but some 3-4 foot chunks to finish. For swimmers, the wind direction will favour the north and west coasts in the morning, especially first thing, then the east coast will be the most sheltered area in the afternoon and evening. High water will be at 7:10am and 7:30pm (8.8m and 9.3m respectively). Low water will be at 1:30pm.
Monday
Weather
With long sunny spells and just a couple of very brief showers, it will feel very similar to Sunday in many ways. However, the persistence of the moderate force 4 SW’ly wind will have led to an influx of cooler air, so the East coast max will probably only be 20°C, whilst the other parishes only peak between 18 and 19°C. During the night time, the wind will back to a fresh force 5 S’ly and the showers will become more frequent. Most of us won’t see it because we’ll be in bed, but we might well hear the cosy sounds of whistling and drumming in the small hours.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 3 foot waves for west-coast surfers. For swimmers, the wind direction will favour the north and east coasts. High water will be at 7:50am and 8:05pm (9.2m and 9.7m respectively). Low water will be at 2:10pm.
Tuesday to Friday
Weather
Four stormy days, strong winds and heavy rain coming and going. Currently the outlook for the Air Display is a pretty grim one. However, there is a chance that fortunate timing will bless it with a brief window of more settled weather. So keep an eye on the forecast, to firm up on the details, but suffice to say, it looks as though it will be tightly-zipped raincoats rather than loose-fitting t-shirts this year. Daily max temps generally around 19°C. Nightly minima generally around 15°C.
Surf and the Water
With fresh to strong winds expected through the vast majority of this period (varying between S’ly and W’ly), we will have a constant supply of reasonably chunky waves, but we will also have a massive tidal range, so we will have to hope that those brief moments of opportunity marry up with the most favourable winds. The wave heights will vary between 3 and 6 feet, the biggest probably being on Thursday and Friday. However, the tides will be biggest on the evenings of Tuesday and Wednesday, when they will peak at 9.9m and 9.8m respectively. Those are just the raw astronomical predictions though. When you account for the low atmospheric pressure and perhaps a little storm-surge, then they may well end up hitting the 10m mark.
The next forecast update will be on Monday morning…
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