Thursday
Weather
So, Storm Goretti… preceeding the main event, which is the wind, there will be a lot of rain, probably 15mm or more through the morning and the afternoon, meaning that trees will be slightly weakened by the time the force 7 SSW’ly wind kicks in around 5pm, and then the force 9 WSW’ly hits around 9pm, veers WNW’ly by midnight, and then only gradually simmers down to a force 6 NW’ly by dawn Friday. Storm force 10 winds will probably occur for a very brief moment in some spots over the land, and maybe force 11 over the open water. So, with some gusts of 80-90mph, we can certainly expect plenty of damage to happen, but this will obviously be minimised if all the states and police advice is followed. The main difference between this and storm Ciaran, is that this is a much briefer affair, really focussed on about 4 hours of the mid to late evening, rather than in storm Ciaran’s case the entire night and half the following day. Whilst it all blows through, it will at least be mild… peaking at 11°C in the day and then falling to about 6°C in the night.
Surf and the Water
Surfers and windsurfers etc, can be glad that the wind will only really go bezurk after dusk, so we can at least enjoy clean 3 foot waves in the morning and then some 5 foot waves in the afternoon. Tides will be about 8.9m at 9:50am, then low around 4:20pm, before the particularly turbulent but mercifully not massive high of 8.5m at 10:15pm (not accounting for additional storm surge).
Friday
Weather
By dawn, the wind will be a gusty force 6 NW’ly and that’s how it will stay through most of the morning and lunchtime, only relaxing to force 4-5 after that. Showers will come and go but they will be very brief indeed, with much much longer dry and bright spells in between. The south or east coasts will be the most sheltered but be prepared for trees to have maybe fallen and blocked the roads that you wish to travel down. Max daytime temps around 8°C, min night time temps around 5°C.
Surf and the Water
A solid but very choppy 10-12 foot swell on the west and north coasts. However, the south coast will offer some super-clean and special novelty waves, if they are accessible. Windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions will be great, thanks to the Goretti craziness being well and truly over. Tides will be about 8.4m high at 10:30am and then low around 5pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Sunshine and isolated showers on Saturday, those showers mainly being in the early morning, when they might be on the heavy side, with a bit of hail mixed in. Sunday should then be much cloudier throughout, but probably dry until dusk. The wind changing from Saturday’s force 4 NW’ly to a force 4 SSE’ly on Sunday morning and then force 5-6 on Sunday afternoon. The air should be increasingly mild… 8-9°C maxima on Saturday, followed by 9-10°C maxima on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
Saturday surf will be about 80% as big and choppy as Friday’s, but Sunday morning’s could potentially be super-fun… 3 feet and super-clean (dropping off to just 1-2 feet in the afternoon though). Swimming conditions will be best in the south and east on Saturday, then in the north and west on Sunday morning. Windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions will be best on Sunday afternoon. High tides will be 7.7m at 11am Saturday and 7.2m at 11:50am Sunday. Low tides will be pre-dawn and post dusk.
Next Week
Weather
A mild week, with winds coming from the south or southwest each day, meaning that we should maintain low double figures for the maxima and high single figures for the minima. Skies will be mostly (but not entirely) cloudy, with rain at times, some of it heavy. By no means a settled week, but there is currently no threat of anything remotely as rough as storm Goretti.
Surf and the Water
A good run of surf, finally. Consistently between 3-5 feet and clean. Plenty of breezy periods for windsurfers and kitesurfers, but also some calmer moments for swimmers. Tides will be nice and small, with afternoon highs ranging between 6.7m (Tuesday) and 7.6m (Friday).
The next forecast update will be on Saturday or Sunday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway