Thursday
Weather
Some showers around breakfast time and towards dusk, but plenty of dryness and sunshine in between. The wind will not be as strong as on Wednesday, but it will still be rather bothersome, making the 20°C max feel more like 15 or 16°C… fresh force 5 SW’ly in the morning, veering W’ly in the afternoon. Town and Fermain will always be the most sheltered and comfortable areas.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 5-6 feet, cleanish in the morning, choppy in the afternoon. Tides will be low at 11am and high at 5:10pm (7.4m). Great conditions for windsurfing and kitesurfing in the north and west. Swimming conditions will only be good in sheltered locations, especially Fermain.
Friday
Weather
In a week of pretty awful weather, this day clearly stands out as the finest. Mainly due to the lightness of the SW’ly breeze (only light force 3 in the morning and light force 2 in the afternoon). It will also be dry and mostly sunny. Temepratures will only climb to about 21°C, but it will feel as though its a lot warmer than previous days, due to the absence of wind-chill. If there is just one evening which is suitable a barbecue (in this turbulent week) then it has to be this one.
Surf and the Water
Thursday’s surf will be Cleanest in the morning and Friday’s best in the afternoon. Thurday’s pretty huge (around 8 feet or more) and good for windsurfing and kitesurfing too. Friday’s surf a more modest 4-5 feet. Tides will be low around 11am and midday respectively. High water will be around dinnertime.
The Weekend
Weather
A weekend of two halves, because I’m afraid to say that Sunday has taken a downturn. Saturday is still set to be dry with hazy sunshine and a few cloudy spells. The wind coming from the southeast (moderate force 4), meaning that we will benefit from some imported French warmth, likely reaching a max temp of 22-23°C. With the wind veering S’ly Sunday morning and SW’ly Sunday afternoon, it will only be a degree or so less warm, so temperature won’t be much of a problem. It will be wet at times though, with an alternating pattern of sunshine and showers through bth the morning and the afternoon. Sunday night is likely to be the most unsettled period, after an initially clear and dry evening, another weather system will bring heavier and more blustery showers, as that SW’ly wind increases to fresh force 5 or strong force 6.
Surf and the Water
Thursday’s surf will be Cleanest in the morning and Friday’s best in the afternoon. Thurday’s pretty huge (around 8 feet or more) and good for windsurfing and kitesurfing too. Friday’s surf a more modest 4-5 feet. Tides will be low around 11am and midday respectively. High water will be around dinnertime.
Next Week
Weather
Just like the previous week, one deep low pressure system after another, ploughing mercilessly across southern Britain and the Channel, only briefly punctuated by drier calmer interludes, that are just as likely to occur in the night time as the day time (now that day-length and night-length are almost equal). Winda will be either S’ly or W’ly, varying in strength between moderate force 4 and strong force 6 (perhaps briefly strong force 7 on Monday and Wednesday. Rain will generally be very heavy, but with the strength of the wind it’s never likely to be especially prolonged. Thus the Island’s water levels will probably be nicely replenished, without ever being too much to handle. That said, prolonged dryness of July and early August did bring an early onset of Autumn to our trees, so leaves are falling readily in these strong winds and there is a danger that drains and gutters may become blocked.
Surf and the Water
Big surf all week, mostly quite clean in terms of wind-direction, but often quite difficult in terms of wind-strength. Windsurfers and kitesurfers will obviously be having a great time, but swimmers will need to seek shelter on a daily basis, e specially as the tides will be very large (probably as large as 10m at the peak on Tuesday, accounting for lower than normal atmospheric pressure).
The next forecast update will most likely be on Friday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway