Sunday
Weather
So let’s get the wet day out of the way, well a wet morning at least… mist (perhaps some hill fog) and drizzle showers. These will probably fizzle out by midday and we will find ourselves watching the cloud-cracks gradually split wider and wider apart, to allow a few sunny spells and a top temp of roughly 12°C in the light force 3 N’ly breeze.
Surf and the Water
The surf story will be like Saturday in reverse, starting off with a decent enough 3-4 foot swell and winding up with some weak but rideable 2 footers. The wind direction is not so great but at least it will be lovely and light, which will also make it good cold-water swimmers. Tiny tides again, with a midday high of roughly 6.4m.
Monday to Thursday
Weather
This is quite a large number of days to chunk together, but they will all be so close to average (in a pleasantly spring-like manner) that it’s very hard to find a reason to separate them. Dry weather, plenty of sunny spells and a general lightness of wind, will all work together to raise the temperature. At the same time, however, a general flow of air from chilly northern regions will work in opposition to lower the temperature. During the daytime, the net effect should be unremarkable but comfortable daily maxima of 11-13°C. In the night time however, the coolness of the air will be the dominant force, so whenever the clearest skies coincide with the lightest winds, we can expect to see minimum temperatures of 5-6°C and there might even be one or two late-season ground-frosts. Jumping back to the daytime, winds will be light enough that all areas feel pleasant (mostly force 2-3, only the odd brief moment of moderate force 4). However, the south coast will have total shelter and the cliffs will be facing the sunshine and capturing the most heat of anywhere.
Surf and the Water
1-2 foot surf, with occasional 3 foot sets if we are lucky. Most of it clean due to the lightness of the wind, even if the direction isn’t great. South-coast swimming conditions will probably be the greatest joy to a hardy few. Tides will be getting bigger, with lows in the mornings and highs in the afternoons… increasing from 6.9m on Monday to roughly 8.4m on Thursday.
Friday and The Weekend
Weather
Friday, will see a change of wind direction, as a weather front sweeps in from the Atlantic. We will momentarily replace the cool N’ly flow with a milder W’ly. That, along with cloudier skies, we can be quite confident about. However, there is a big question mark as to whether this weather front will be potent enough to give us any rainfall… my current feeling is, yes it will, but probably nothing more than spits and spots for a few hours. Saturday will then have sunny skies and a moderate to fresh NW’ly wind, before Sunday hopefully maintains those sunny skies but allows the wind to relax to light force 2-3 again. Max temperatures will possibly be a degree higher than the previous days. Min temps likewise, with the shortening hours of darkness making ground-frosts less and less likely.
Surf and the Water
Choppy surf, except perhaps on Sunday. Size-wise, it’s probably going to remain around 1-2 feet, but there is a chance that it will fall flat. Swimming conditions will generally be best along the east coast. Tides will be low around lunchtime and high around breakfast time and dinner time… increasing incrementally from roughly 9m to 9.8m.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway