Saturday
Weather
A lovely sunny day to look at, but pretty chilly and windy when you actually get out there. The max temp only 14-15°C, but the force 4-5 NNE’ly wind making it feel like it’s only about 11°C. Skies won’t be pristine blue, there will be bubbles of fair-weather cloud in the morning, and in the afternoon these may become big enough to produce a brief light shower, but the greater likelihood is that the only showers we get will be in the night time, and they may be slightly heavier too. Min temp overnight 11°C.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 2-3 feet but pretty much ruined by the crosswind. The south coast will be nice and sheltered for swimming though. Tides will be 7.3m at 10:40am, then low at 5pm.
Sunday
Weather
There’s a slim chance that overnight showers could continue a little after dawn, but it looks as though the morning should then be dry, with the next rash of showers (heavier this time) coming along in the afternoon and evening. Later in the night, we might even hear some rumbles of thunder. Max daytime temperature only 13-14°C (once again with a force 4-5 NNE’ly wind). Min overnight temperature, just 10°C.
Surf and the Water
Once again the west-coast surf will be pretty much ruined by the crosswind, but only 1-2 feet anyway on this occasion. The south coast will again be the most sheltered for swimmers. Tides will be 6.8m at 11:20am, then low at 5:45pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
The common ground between these two days will be the lightness of the wind. Variable or SE’ly in direction, and feeling virtually calm compared to the fresh winds of the previous days and the strong winds of the following days. Temperatures will probably peak at 15-16°C, making it feel warmer than the previous days. Monday most likely dry apart from maybe a shower or two around breakfast time. Tuesday possibly wet for a large chunk of the morning (although that’s still very uncertain) and then some thundery showers in the area through the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
Tides will be high at lunchtime and very small, just 6.4m on Monday and 6.5m on Tuesday. The surf conditions will be lovely and clean, potentially 3 feet and excellent but possibly almost nothing, the reason being that the swell is small but of very long period. My current estimate is that Monday will be good on the expert reefs but pretty useless over the sands of Vazon. Tuesday, however, stands a good chance of being great in all locations (and thanks to the tiny tides, great at all times too).
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
A rather stormy end to the week, with deep low pressure systems in the nearby Atlantic. It’s uncertain precisely how deep and how close the low will be, therefore whether we will have winds (most likely SSW’ly) of roughly fresh force or perhaps strong force 7, or perhaps even gale force 8. Either way, the weather will generally be described a wet and windy (perhaps very) but the temperature will be mild and steady… something like 15-16°C for the maxima and 13-14°C for the minima.
Surf and the Water
Some great windsurfing and kitesurfing conditions, regardless of wind direction. For surfers, conditions will be mostly great too (pretty big by Friday, possibly 6-8 feet), but the odd squally weather front, especially on Wednesday, will blast the wind in briefly brutally onshore direction. Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the late afternoons (increasing from 7m on Wednesday to 8.3m on Friday).
The next forecast update will be on Monday night…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway